Despite this, isolated afternoon showers will still be a possibility. On Friday, drier air is supposed to temporarily move back over the area. A warning shot of monsoonal moisture drifted over the area last night as the high pressure moved slightly east. It was nice to wake up to the wet pavement and cloudy skies and a little humidity this morning.įor today, the models show a chance of showers redeveloping in afternoon convection. My point is, patterns don’t last forever, and this one is starting to show that. This may surprise a few people out there. It shows the average temperatures over the last 45 days. This data is from NOAA’s CDAS (the climate data assimilation system). When you look at the average temperatures over the last 45 days it has been average to below average in most of the US. The truth is the heat has only been in place for about 2 1/2 weeks. We have short-term weather memories and forget how cold it was this spring and during the beginning of the summer. We know this during wet summers, dry summers, and snowy winters. Hopefully, the crystal ball will become clearer soon.Įxtended patterns are difficult to break out of. This is where the model solutions start to fall apart and lose consistency. There is a good chance the ridge will lock back into place for a few or several days. On Thursday, drier air should move back into the forecast area. This looks to be the case through Wednesday evening. Moisture will continue to stream into the area today and isolated to scattered showers will return. Although, I found one isolated site that picked up 0.15 inches in the last 24 hours. Most other areas I looked at were in the hundredths of an inch. Rain fell yesterday afternoon and returned briefly in the overnight hours. My neighborhood seemed to be the biggest benefactor of the day. Yesterday, isolated areas got a little rain. Unfortunately, I still can’t get past Wednesday with any degree of confidence. Time to start thinking about winter–STAY TUNED!įor the last couple of hours, I have been pouring through the models trying to come to some conclusions about this weather pattern. This shows the first snow sneaking into the northern and central mountains by September 25th. The extended European model is already sniffing around for snow in the northern Rockies by mid-September. I still think we have a good chance of a recurring tropical feature that will bring enhanced precipitation before the end of October. El Nino developed earlier and stronger than I had expected this year. Not what I had hoped for the summer this year. It looks like Friday through next Thursday will be dry before moisture starts to work its way into the area after the 10th. In my last update, I said it looked like things would dry out starting on Thursday and I was not sure how long the drying would last. This afternoon and evening will be the last best chance at wetting rains until late next week. Areas north of Bayfield had a couple of good nights as well. Areas around Ignacio in SE La Plata County received the heaviest rainfall this cycle. Northern portions of the forecast area finally got some accumulation the other night. Thanks for following and supporting the site! Click here to donate If you prefer to donate with Venmo: Click here to submit a weather report or questionįor the most part, the rains have been minimal the last few days across the forecast area. I am looking forward to moving back to being cautiously optimistic. I hope the models are right about this, I have found myself in “believe it when I see it” mode for the last couple of weeks. Green is rain the darker the shade, the heavier the rain. ![]() Here are the maps in motion from now through next Thursday. The ensemble models show this surge lasting for quite some time. The models then show a surge of moisture coming into the area triggering widespread showers Saturday night, with more showers possible every afternoon through at least Thursday. On Saturday, the ridge will move east again as low-pressure builds in across Southern California. Tomorrow we may see the ridge move slightly east enough to trigger some scattered showers across the forecast area.įriday shower chances will decrease as the ridge meanders back west. Today there will be a slight chance of isolated showers, mainly across the higher elevations to the north. For the last couple of days, I have been following what looks to be a pattern change coming soon–slightly cooler and wetter. You should know by now when it comes to me posting an update, no news is no news, boring weather.
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